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{"id":27,"date":"2020-05-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chrismiles.co\/what-would-the-english-premier-league-look-like-if-it-moved-to-a-franchise-model-857bf38bf5e4\/"},"modified":"2020-07-14T17:19:18","modified_gmt":"2020-07-14T17:19:18","slug":"what-would-the-english-premier-league-look-like-if-it-moved-to-a-franchise-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chrismiles.co\/what-would-the-english-premier-league-look-like-if-it-moved-to-a-franchise-model\/","title":{"rendered":"What would the English Premier League look like if it moved to a franchise model? Part\u00a01"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 12<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>
\"What<\/div>\n

Like millions, no, billions <\/em>of people around the world right now, I am missing sports. I love sports and I\u2019m at a total loss for how to fill my time in the evenings and at weekends without being able to play, watch or analyse sporting events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One night recently I couldn\u2019t sleep, and I started thinking about the differences between sports leagues in America and Europe. They have salary caps and drafts to encourage parity and opportunity and a $13 billion college sports industry (according to Bloomberg in 2017) which develops young stars and feeds them into the league. There is also no relegation, meaning teams can invest without the fear of dropping down a division.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s say the financials stack up and it\u2019s feasible operationally and logistically (big \u2018ifs\u2019 but this is hypothetical anyway, so who cares!), who would get to be in the new league?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new league<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

To follow a US-style divisions, conferences, and playoffs model I ideally need 32 teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve used a range of criteria to determine who gets to be in the league. I resisted the temptation to create some ridiculous coefficient by combining all the factors and instead looked at each category one by one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I were starting a league entirely from scratch, it would be a case of picking the largest markets, building stadiums there, and creating teams (think London Blues vs Manchester Reds!). Given that we already have 92 teams across the Premier League and English Football League to choose from, I\u2019ll use these.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve also given myself two wildcard picks, where I can veto the data if I think there\u2019s a team that will add more value (subjectively rather than just financially) to the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Category 1: All-time premier league table<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I used Wordfootball.net\u2019s all-time premier league table<\/a> to find the top 10 Premiership teams since its inception in 1992.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The top 10 teams over the last 28 years are locked into my new franchise league<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Manchester United, with their utter dominance through most of the 90s and into the 2000s, amassing 13 titles, sit miles ahead at the top of the list. Despite spending \u00a31.2billion on transfers since 2008, Manchester City are still playing catch up on the top 6, although they\u2019ll take over Everton in the next season or two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Everton join Man United as the only teams to have never been relegated from the Premier League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Newcastle, Aston Villa, and West Ham all make the top 10 by being in the Premier League for the majority of its existence, with Aston Villa consistently finishing in the top 6 in the late 90s and 00s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two notable omissions are the only other teams to win the Premier League: Blackburn and Leicester. We\u2019ll get to both of them later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also checked out the all-time table from the creation of the Football League in 1888 until 2020 and despite some movement within the list, there is only one new entry in the top 10. Sunderland rise from 16th to 10th to replace West Ham, who drop down to 18th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Sorry, Liverpool fans \u2014 there\u2019s no trophy for the highest points total over 133 years!<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

I can\u2019t set up this fantasy franchise league without a rivalry as old as the football league itself and arguably the best in England\u200a\u2014\u200aThe Tyne-Wear derby, so Sunderland<\/em><\/strong> make the cut too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have our first 11 teams. Congratulations to all of you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Category 2: Global presence and value<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I want this imaginary league to be financially lucrative; so although I respect and give priority to the top teams, they also need to have a global following.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The simplest indicators of global presence are revenue and value. More fans = more merchandising and sponsorship opportunities and TV rights= more revenue = higher value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the 2020 edition of Deloitte\u2019s annual football money league<\/a> Man United, Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal, West Ham, and Everton are all in the top 20 teams globally and are already locked into the franchise league. Leicester, Wolverhampton Wanderers, <\/em><\/strong>and Crystal Palace<\/em><\/strong> are also in the top 30 and are added to the new league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Value<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Forbes\u2019s 2019 list of the top football teams by value<\/a> also includes Newcastle, at 20th, who are also already on our list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The University of Liverpool published a study<\/a> in May 2019 on the value of Premier League clubs. This study has the traditional \u2018top 6\u2019 at the top of the pile but also includes Burnley, Newcastle, Leicester, and Southampton in the top 10, with Everton not far behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will, therefore, add Burnley<\/em><\/strong> and Southampton<\/em><\/strong> to the league too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The report refers to Burnley as \u2018arguably the most sensibly run club in the Premier League financially.\u2019<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Category 3: Top UK cities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We now have 16 teams for the new league based on historical performance, revenue, and value\u200a\u2014\u200awhich were unsurprisingly all very closely correlated to one another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Franchise leagues are all about tapping into the biggest commercial opportunities, so what lucrative areas of the country have been missed so far?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researching this proved more troublesome than I expected. Choosing between PUAs (primary urban areas), metropolitan areas, cities, districts\u2026 to be completely honest I ended up down a bit of a rabbit hole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I decided to use the centre for cities tool<\/a>. If you\u2019re a data nerd this is quite a cool tool (I use cool very <\/em>loosely).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Several of the UK\u2019s largest cities do not yet have a representative in the league.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Of the top 10 cities in the UK, currently, Glasgow, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol, and Nottingham have no representative in the new league. Let\u2019s put that right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Glasgow<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Up until this point I have been talking about the English football league, not the UK. There\u2019s been talk for years about adding Celtic and Rangers to the English league system and I for one am in favour of it. It would likely cripple the Scottish league system but this is hypothetical, so Scottish football fans\u200a\u2014\u200adon\u2019t @ me!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not only is Glasgow the fourth biggest city in the UK but it is football mad. I want this league to have as many exciting match-ups as possible and what could be more appetising than the fiercest rivalry in the UK? Congratulations Celtic<\/em><\/strong> and Rangers<\/em><\/strong> fans, you\u2019re in!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sheffield<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

With Sheffield Wednesday 14th on the all-time table and Sheffield United at 17th, they\u2019re both good candidates for inclusion in the league based on history. However, they\u2019ve not fared so well in the Premier League era, at 23rd (Wednesday) and 39th (United) on the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the UK\u2019s sixth-largest city and with 40,000 and 33,000 seater stadiums, they\u2019re both worth candidates to join the new UK Premier League. Whether there is space for only one or both is not yet clear\u200a\u2014\u200aSheffield United <\/em><\/strong>and Sheffield Wednesday<\/em> <\/strong>fans\u200a\u2014\u200ahang tight, you\u2019ll get some football in your city.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leeds<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Ah, Leeds\u200a\u2014\u200athe nation\u2019s perennial underachievers. Despite being a large city with a love of football, they have been out of the top-flight for 16 long, painful years, even falling to the third tier from 2007\u20132010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Leeds are top of the 2019\u201320 championship table and look set to get promoted if the season can be completed.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Leeds looked set to finally return to the promised land before the postponement of all football back in March. Whatever happens with future league games, I can\u2019t make this league without them. Who else can\u2019t wait to renew the Man United vs Leeds rivalry? Not to mention the Yorkshire rivalry with their neighbours in Sheffield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leeds United<\/em><\/strong>, you\u2019re back where you belong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bristol<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Bristol is a funny one\u200a\u2014\u200aa large and affluent city with two football teams, Bristol City (47th overall all-time) and Bristol Rovers (who have never featured in the top division).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although typically considered more of a rugby city, there is still a clear market for a strong, top division team in Bristol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bristol, I\u2019m going to give you a chance; you get one team. Unlike Sheffield, choosing between the two is incredibly easy. I used top trumps cards and Bristol City wins in every category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
*The squad values are taken from https:\/\/www.transfermarkt.co.uk\/<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Welcome to the big time, Bristol City!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nottingham<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Having been founded in 1865, Nottingham Forest are now the oldest active club in the football league (since Notts County\u2019s relegation from League Two in 2019). They have one Football League title, two FA Cups, four League Cups, and most incredibly two European cups (under the guidance of the legendary Brian Clough in \u201979 and again in \u201880).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the real world, they\u2019re getting closer and closer to a return to the top flight and sit 5th in the Championship table. They\u2019re sleeping giants of English football and deserve their place in this new league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nottingham Forest, <\/em><\/strong>welcome to the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the first 3 categories there are 22 teams locked in to the new UK Premier League (including the either\/or of Sheffield Wednesday and United).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Category 3: Geographical split<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I want to create a league that gives as many people as possible the opportunity to watch top-flight football, but that is mindful of where the biggest markets and teams already are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using Paul Gerald\u2019s map of English football clubs<\/a> you can see that there is a bias to the North-West and London across the Premiership (blue pins) and Championship (purple pins), but that the Championship improves the geographical spread in the West, Midlands, North, and North-East. The Premiership also has a strong contingent of teams on the south coast, although it might not stay that way for long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n